What the Hell is Going On with the Polls?

by Jim Treglio, Mon Jul 23, 2007 at 10:19:28 PM EST

One quick question to you political junkies out there:

What the hell is going on with Rasmussen?  Every other poll has Bush at around 30% or lower (ARG now says 25%) but Rasmussen has him at 38%.  That's a spread of over 13 percentage points.  Can someone explain to me the methodology between Rasmussen and everyone else?




Tags: Bush, George W. Bush, Approval Ratings, ARG, Rasmussen, Gallup (all tags)

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Automated phone polling (none / 0)

He doesn't use humans.  He uses robo calls.  So I think his results are tainted.  Who stays on the line to take a robo call?  A 50 yr. old lonely guy?  A 75 yr. old shut in?   Who?


by dpANDREWS on Mon Jul 23, 2007 at 10:39:19 PM EST

Re: Automated phone polling (none / 0)

that would also explain Hillary's high support with Rass
Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Mon Jul 23, 2007 at 10:45:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You - you - would hope (none / 0)

But she is clearly leading among the rest of the major polling firms that emply actual humans to ask questions.  Check out Pollster.com.

.... Now of couse you could go wingnut next and argue that polls don't matter.


by dpANDREWS on Mon Jul 23, 2007 at 10:48:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Automated phone polling (none / 0)

Please, cardboard, get a hold of yourself.  

For the longest time Rasmussen was the ONLY pollster to show very low support for Clinton. When all polls had her ahead by double-digits, he showed Clinton at 2% ahead, even one time he showed a 1% Obama lead.    Rasmussen became the crutch for Obama fans around here, the one glimmer of hope.   It is funny for you to now dismiss that poll as just another Clinton-stooge.   You Obama posters are fast running out of polls to ridicule.  According to you people, every single poll in the universe is corrupt, bought, slanted, made-up and falsified.   That is true until the very moment said poll shows something good for Obama, upon which point that poll morphs from unacceptable garbage to the greatest thing since sliced bread.  

It is like watching a Seinfeld episode completely created by Obama supporters.


by georgep on Tue Jul 24, 2007 at 12:02:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nice way to (none / 0)

alienate all Obama supporters. You are as classy as your candidate of choice.

Once you were one of the most reasonable posters. What happened?


The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.
by Populism2008 on Tue Jul 24, 2007 at 09:20:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nice way to (none / 0)

Hey, it was late last night.  Also, there were terrible sex jokes from Obama fans in response to a Clinton supporter stating the following:  "Hillary is 44."    But, what I have stated is true and has indeed become a comedy now.  Name a single poll that has come out in the last 2 months that has not been dismissed as garbage by the vast majority of Obama posters.  After a while you have to ask yourself who makes them right and every single poll in the universe utterly wrong.  The answer:  Nothing.      

And, yes, my candidate of choice is very classy.  However, your tag line is obsessive and false, and absolutely not classy.   I remember you with the Clinton obsession from posts dating as far back as 2005 (similarly non-classy bash-tagline, even back then) so I really never considered you a reasonable poster (although several Obama posters are.)   So, if we are now on a level playing field as for how we "consider" each other, that is fine by me.  


by georgep on Tue Jul 24, 2007 at 11:05:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nice way to (none / 0)

The sex jokes went over the line, I agree.  But you need to admit that the Hillary is 44 crap is obnoxious and got old very fast.  


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Tue Jul 24, 2007 at 12:56:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What the Hell is Going On with the Polls? (3.00 / 3)

It depends on the sample size.

The 95% confidence level (also popularly called the "margin of error") [meaning 95 times out of 100, if you use the same methodology you'll get the same result within that "margin of error"] mean that 5 times out of 100 you'll get a result outside of that "margin of error".

You can calculate the 95% confidence level:

1.96 times the square root ((response A times response B)divided by the sample)

For instance, with 50% for "A" and 50% for "B", and a 500 sample:

1.96 times the square root of ((50 times 50) divided by 500)

1.96 times the square root of (2500 divided by 500)

1.96 times the square root of 5 = 4.38% "margin of error"

Also, pollsters (opinion reserachers) will be consistent in their methodology with multiple polls, but different pollsters have differing methodologies. That's why it's usually not a good idea to forecast trends using results from different pollsters. Differences in methodology can include sample weighting, differing demographic assumptions, and question wording.  


543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Mon Jul 23, 2007 at 10:40:50 PM EST

Re: What the Hell is Going On with the Polls? (none / 0)

That was a very good explanation (maybe a tad short), Bersin. Now every one can latch on to the poll that favors their own favorites!


by blues on Tue Jul 24, 2007 at 01:08:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What the Hell is Going On with the Polls? (none / 0)

Well, in 2003 you really were able to latch onto one poll or another for your favorite candidate (Dean, Kerry, Lieberman, Edwards, Gephardt.)   This year, not so much, at least so far.  


by georgep on Tue Jul 24, 2007 at 02:00:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What the Hell is Going On with the Polls? (none / 0)

Fair point...

I just want some Iowa polls.  Its been nearly a month.  WTF?


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Tue Jul 24, 2007 at 12:57:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What the Hell is Going On with the Polls? (none / 0)

Okay, I get that.  But if most of these polls are at +/- 3-5% in margin of error.  That explains some difference: for instance, some polls put Bush at 30% approval, some have 25%, others may have 35%.  I get that.

But Rasmussen is at 38% which is way, way, above everyone else.  If the trend is 28-29%, which is where Pollster.com puts the trend, then Rasmussen is 10% than the trend.  Moreover, Rasmussen is consistently higher than everyone else -- Bush hasn't left the high thirties.  If this were a case of margin of error, you'd see a swing pattern up and down.  That's not what's going on.

No, this seems like a methodology issue.  Certainly robo-calls are part of the issue.  Though, these polls tend to be accurate during elections.  Perhaps the problem is the wording of the questions, or the order of the questions.

All this begs the question: who's the best polling outfit on the issue of Presidential Approval?


by Jim Treglio on Tue Jul 24, 2007 at 02:37:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What the Hell is Going On with the Polls? (none / 0)

Even More... WHERE THE HELL ARE THE IOWA POLLS?  


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Mon Jul 23, 2007 at 11:05:26 PM EST


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